Weekly Market Commentary


Quick glance

  • Drier weather is in the forecast but cool temperatures are expected to accompany, resulting in possible crop development issues
  • Planting progress increased quickly but still lagged the five-year averages for corn and soybean
  • USDA’s June crop report is released on Tuesday, June 11, at 11 a.m. Low acres and yields are expected
  • U.S.- Mexico trade deal confirmed


  • Grain markets are lower for a second straight session, with prices falling as farmers are expected to see drier weather this week to try to complete planting. It’s important to note that while warmer temperatures are expected, many fields are still flooded, making it difficult to get planters in the field. In addition, cooler temperatures are expected to accompany the drier weather. This has the potential to hinder the developmental phases for crops already in the ground - potentially impacting final yield for 2019. 
  • Flooding continues to linger and hinder rail movement for soybeans, leaving many end users scrambling for truck replacements. 
  • Expect traders to continue paying attention to weather forecasts while analyzing significant amount of USDA data early this week.

WASDE Report

  • The USDA crop report will be out tomorrow Tuesday, June 11. Given the massive planting delays across much of the U.S., there is a potential for the USDA to revise the balance sheet.
  • The report will likely reflect the agency’s expectation of lower corn acres and yields but won’t be precise as farmers are still planting. The updated planting numbers won’t come until the June 28 acreage report.

Crop Progress

  • Corn and soybean planting progress increased quickly but progress still lagged well behind the 5-year averages:
    • Corn is 83% planted, 58% last week and 99% five-year average
    • Soybeans are 66% planted, 29% last week and 88% five-year average
    • Spring wheat is 97% planted, 84% last week and 99% five-year average

Trade News

  • U.S. and Mexico struck a trade deal on Friday to avoid a tariff war that would have applied a 5% tariff on all Mexican goods. Mexico agreed to expand a controversial asylum program and try to stop the flow of illegal migrants.
  • While trade is looking up with our southern neighbor, the U.S.- China trade war appears to continue dragging on indefinitely. President Trump and President Xi are expected to meet at the G-20 summit in Japan from June 28-29. CNBC reported Trump threatened to levy more tariffs on Chinese imports if President Xi does not attend the meeting.