corn field

Weekly Commentary: Trade's focus is on Thursday's WASDE report


Quick glance:

  • Corn and soybean ratings jumped only one percent from the previous week, falling short of trade expectations 
  • Trade’s focus will be on Thursday’s USDA supply and demand report 
  • China reports a new African swine fever outbreak


Crop Ratings

Some traders expected a 2-3% increase in corn and soybean crop ratings with the warmer and drier forecast. The expectations fell short with both crops only increasing by one percent to the good to excellent (GTE) range from the previous week, and wheat jumping up 3% from last week:

  • Corn was rated at 57% GTE, 56% last week, and 75% five-year average
  • Soybeans were at 53% good to excellent, 54% last week, and 71% five-year average
  • Spring wheat was at 78% good to excellent, 75% last week, and 80% five-year average


  • Corn was 98% emerged vs. five-year average of 100%
  • Soybeans 90% emerged vs. five-year average of 98%


  • Grain markets opened the week higher with warmer and drier temperatures expected across the U.S. this week.

World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) report

  • The July WASDE report comes out this Thursday, July 11, 11 a.m. CST. It will be the focus this week, but many traders are unsure of what to expect from the agency’s acreage estimates because its shocking June 28 crop report where the USDA increased corn acres significantly, despite the enormous rainfall that slowed down planting this spring.
  • In this week’s report, the agency will update their supply and demand estimates using the June 28 planted acres and quarterly stocks, but because of uncertainty, yield and acreage numbers may not be accurate.


  • China reports a new African swine fever (ASF) outbreak in its southwestern region of Guangxi. The disease and its impact on corn use continue to be a negative in the market along with the continued trade uncertainty with the U.S.
  • U.S. and Chines trade representatives are expected to meet int eh coming weeks to continue trade talks.