Overall sentiment is already bearish as focus remains on the U.S.- China trade war, African swine fever’s (ASF) impact on feed demand and expected increases in supply from South America. The neutral to bearish tone of the latest WASDE was not enough to significantly move prices.
- 2018 – 2019 U.S. carryout increased by 2,095 bu (bushels) to 60 million (m) bu, primarily driven by falling U.S. ethanol demand.
- 2018 – 2019 global carryout was increased nearly 12 million metric tons (mmt) due to improved South American production.
- 2019 – 2020 U.S. production was estimated at 15,030m bu, driven by 92.8m planted acres. This is the same number the USDA provided in their Prospective Plantings report in March and analysts expect this number to decrease given the slow planting pace so far this year.
- As a result of the large production number, 2019 – 2020 U.S. ending stocks were seen at 2,485m bu, a year-to-year (YOY) increase of 18.6%.
- The USDA raised U.S. 2018 – 2019 ending stocks by 100m bu, to 995m bu, on lower exports to China.
- 2018 – 2019 global ending stocks rose 5.8mmt MOM as the USDA lowered global demand and exports and raised Argentine production.
- 2019 – 2020 ending stocks are not much different from the 113mmt number in 2018 – 2019. An increase in total supply from higher beginning stocks are offset as crush usage rises to meet animal protein demand.
- U.S. 2018 – 2019 ending stocks increased 40m bu due to decreased feed usage and exports.
- 2019 – 2020 global ending stocks were estimated 18mmt higher YOY due to production increases in major exporting countries.
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